CMI mortality monitor predicts significant rise in mortality in coming weeks

The number of deaths with Covid-19 mentioned on the death certificate has continued to increase in recent weeks, from under 100 in each of weeks 36 and 37, to 978 in week 43 according to the Continuous Mortality Investigation (CMI).

The latest UK mortality analysis through its mortality monitor covers weeks 42 and 43 of 2020 (10 October to 23 October) based on provisional England & Wales deaths data published by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) on 3 November 2020.

It found that all-cause mortality is now higher than levels observed in 2019 and there were 6% more deaths registered in England & Wales in week 43 than if death rates had been the same as for the corresponding weeks of 2019. The increase was 2% in week 42. These figures contrast with the previous four weeks, when deaths were slightly lower than expected.

There have been around 61,400 more deaths in the UK from the start of the pandemic to 23 October 2020 than if mortality rates were similar to those experienced in 2019.

Cobus Daneel, Chair of the CMI Mortality Projections Committee said: “ONS data shows that mortality is now higher than in the same period in 2019, and is increasing week-on-week. More recent data on cases and hospitalisations suggests that we are likely to see a further significant rise in mortality after the period covered by this report.”