Flu jab delays: what impact will this have on the NHS?

In order to cope with flu season alongside the Covid-19 pandemic this winter, the government has been preparing to launch the country’s largest seasonal flu programme in its history, offering the jab to more than 36 million people.

However, GP surgeries have now been forced to cancel thousands of flu jab appointments after Seqirus, the largest provider of flu vaccines to the UK, has been unable to deliver the supplies.

The supplier sent a letter out to all GP surgeries in England and Wales, stating: “Due to unforeseen challenges linked with road freight delays, we have informed all our customers of a consequent delay to their scheduled vaccine delivery by a maximum of one to two weeks.”

The letter hints that the delay is due to a national shortage of HGV drivers, which has led to a range of delivery disruptions across the UK.

Seqirus said they are working hard to resolve the issue but have advised GPs not to rebook patients in for appointments until they receive confirmation of a new delivery date, which will be sent out seven days before the vaccine supplies are due to arrive.

However, with some practices forced to cancel upwards of 5,000 appointments, rebooking every patient within just one week could be a tall order.

How will this affect GPs?

While a spokesperson from the Department of Health told the BBC that the delay should have “no impact on the flu vaccination programme overall”, many doctors disagree.

Dr Gary Howsam, vice chairman of the Royal College of GPs, said: “With more than 36 million people eligible for the flu vaccine on the NHS this year, GPs need the supply chain to run like clockwork.

“A delay of even a couple of weeks is going to have a big impact on practices and their patients, especially when GPs are already dealing with the fallout caused by the shortage of blood test bottles and the anxiety this is causing.”

It is clear that GPs are already under a huge amount of stress after having to cancel countless blood tests due to the aforementioned test tube shortages, alongside dealing with the backlog of patients caused by the pandemic.

Many are also concerned about how the influenza campaign will fit in with the Covid-19 booster jabs programme, which is expected to be rolled out in the autumn.

While it has been suggested that the two vaccines could be administered at the same time, continued delays could cause problems and put a huge amount of strain on time and resources.

How will the delays affect patients?

The deputy chair of the Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation (JCVI), Professor Anthony Harnden, has said flu immunisation is particularly important this year due to the population’s waning immunity from the virus.

Lockdown and social distancing measures have kept levels of flu very low for the past 18 months, but as schools go back to ‘normal’ and people return to their offices this autumn, cases are expected to rise significantly. Doctors warn that children under the age of two are particularly at risk, as many will have had no exposure to the virus at all.

The lack of flu vaccines, alongside the countless other challenges the NHS face, could therefore see the health service stretched to its limit.

BMA GP committee chair, Dr Richard Vautrey, said it is “incredibly concerning” that the lack of vaccines seems to be stemming from similar issues around freight capacity and transportation, and is now urging ministers address the crisis.

“We must ask the Government exactly what it is doing to urgently address this. It is not acceptable for government to be leaving these issues to clinicians and NHS management when clinicians and NHS management have no levers to resolve them. Ministers must act,” he said.

The impact on secondary care

Experts are also concerned that any disruption to the influenza programme could put unnecessary pressure on hospitals, which are currently running at nearly full capacity ‐ around 85%, the recommended maximum to maintain safe care.

While just 7% of beds are now occupied with Covid patients, many are now taken up by patients who needed non-emergency care during the pandemic and were pushed to the back of the queue, such as those who need hip and knee replacements.

Now that the NHS is addressing this backlog of patients, alongside the extra infection control measures, hospitals are reaching capacity; and that’s before any of the typical winter illnesses are dealt with.

With the waiting list for hospital operations and other routine treatments now approaching 5.5 million and with many staff experiencing burnout and in desperate need of some respite, a spike in flu cases could see the health service pushed to its limit.

The NHS have recently asked the government to provide them with an extra £10 billion in funding on top of the pre-agreed £140 billion package to help the health service to cope with the backlog. While the government are expected to announce an extra £5.5 billion for the NHS in their social care reform package, many are asking ‐ will this go far enough?

Dr Chaand Nagpaul, BMA council chair, said: “The Government has a moral duty to commit to giving the NHS ‐ whatever it needs’ as per the Chancellor’s own words. Failing to provide adequate resources will result in more patients suffering, their health deteriorating, and in many cases not surviving.”

Boris Johnson is expected to reveal his long-term plans for social care later today (Tuesday 7th September).