The global age-standardised lung cancer mortality rate among women is projected to increase by 43% from 2015 to 2030, according to an analysis of data from 52 countries. The global age-standardised breast cancer mortality rate is projected to decrease by 9% in the same time frame.

The research was published in Cancer Research, a journal of the American Association for Cancer Research.

While previous work has focused on projections in lung and breast cancer mortality among women in a single country or continent, few studies have estimated trends in mortality caused by these two common cancers on a global scale.

Authors analysed breast and female lung cancer mortality data from the World Health Organization (WHO) Mortality Database from 2008 to 2014. For inclusion in the study, countries must have reported data for at least four years between 2008 and 2014 and must have a population greater than 1 million. Fifty-two countries fulfilled these criteria: 29 from Europe; 14 from the Americas; seven from Asia; and two from Oceania. Lung and breast cancer age-standardised mortality rates in women reported as per 100,000 person-years, were calculated for each country based on the WHO World Standard Population.

Globally, among women, the mortality rate for lung cancer is projected to increase from 11.2 in 2015 to 16.0 in 2030; the highest lung cancer mortality rates in 2030 are projected in Europe and Oceania, while the lowest lung cancer mortality rates in 2030 are projected in America and Asia. Only Oceania is predicted to see a decrease in lung cancer mortality, which is projected to fall from 17.8 in 2015 to 17.6 in 2030.

Globally, the mortality rate for breast cancer is projected to decrease from 16.1 in 2015 to 14.7 in 2030. The highest breast cancer mortality rate is predicted in Europe with a decreasing trend overall, while the lowest breast cancer mortality rate is predicted in Asia with an increasing trend overall.